GSK's third-quarter 2026 results showed falling vaccine sales holding back an otherwise strong quarter. Vaccine revenue fell 2% at constant exchange rates to £2,583 million, led by lower sales of the shingles vaccine Shingrix and the RSV vaccine Arexvy. Group turnover still rose 5% to £8,887 million.
GSK published the figures on 28 October 2026 and filed them with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. Specialty medicines for cancer, HIV and respiratory disease grew 15%, enough to lift the group. GSK kept its full-year 2026 guidance unchanged. All growth rates below are at constant exchange rates (CER) unless marked as actual exchange rates (AER).
- Vaccines: £2,583 million in Q3, down 2% at CER and 4% at AER.
- Shingrix: £780 million, down 5%, which GSK put down mainly to lower sales in China.
- Arexvy: £195 million, down 24%, on lower demand and a US accounting adjustment in Q3 2025.
- Meningitis: £599 million, up 12%, GSK's highest-ever quarter for these vaccines.
- Group: turnover £8,887 million, up 5%; core earnings per share 54.6p, up 1%; 2026 guidance reaffirmed.
Which GSK vaccines lost sales in Q3 2026?
Three of GSK's five vaccine lines shrank or stood still in the quarter. Shingrix, its biggest vaccine, sold £780 million, 5% less than a year earlier. GSK said the "Q3 decline [was] driven by lower sales in International, primarily China, partly offset by US pricing and inventory build".
Arexvy, the RSV vaccine for older adults, fell 24% to £195 million. GSK gave two reasons: "lower market demand, as well as returns provision adjustments in the US in Q3 2025". The second point means the comparison quarter a year ago was flattered by an accounting change, so part of the fall is a base effect rather than lost patients.
Influenza vaccines dropped 17% to £177 million, which GSK attributed to "US competitive pressure and delayed timing of deliveries". Other paediatric and adult vaccines were flat at £832 million, because a one-off sale of bulk MMR/V antigen in 2025 did not repeat.
| Vaccine line | Q3 2026 sales and change |
|---|---|
| Shingrix (shingles) | £780m, down 5% |
| Meningitis (Bexsero, Penmenvy and others) | £599m, up 12% |
| Arexvy (RSV) | £195m, down 24% |
| Influenza | £177m, down 17% |
| Other paediatric and adult vaccines | £832m, flat |
| Total vaccines | £2,583m, down 2% (down 4% at AER) |
What kept GSK's vaccine business from falling further?
Meningitis vaccines were the bright spot. Sales rose 12% to £599 million, which GSK described as its "highest ever sales quarter", with growth from the continued uptake of Penmenvy, its newer meningococcal vaccine, and a build of the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stockpile of Bexsero.
Over the first nine months of 2026, vaccine sales reached £7,016 million, up 3%. Strong first-half sales of Shingrix and Arexvy, reported in GSK's half-year results in July, mean the full-year vaccine picture is still positive despite a weak third quarter.
How did the rest of GSK perform?
Specialty Medicines grew 15% to £3,877 million and are now GSK's largest business. General Medicines, which includes older inhaled respiratory brands, were flat at £2,427 million.
Core operating profit rose 5% to £3,076 million. Core earnings per share grew only 1% to 54.6p, which GSK linked mainly to higher net finance expenses "primarily due to Nuvalent", the US cancer biotech it acquired in the quarter, plus a higher effective tax rate. Higher research and development investment also held back profit growth. On a total (statutory) basis, earnings per share fell 21% to 38.5p, mainly because of £328 million of restructuring charges under the "Accelerate Growth" cost programme. GSK declared a Q3 dividend of 17p and expects 70p for the full year.
Chief Executive Luke Miels said: "GSK has delivered another strong quarter, with our key growth drivers and new launches performing well."
What is GSK's outlook for vaccines in 2026?
GSK reaffirmed all of its 2026 guidance at constant exchange rates:
- Turnover growth of 3% to 5%, in the upper half of that range.
- Core operating profit growth of 7% to 9%, in the upper half.
- Core earnings per share growth of 7% to 9%, in the lower half.
For vaccines, GSK said full-year sales are "expected to be broadly stable to an increase at a low single-digit percentage". That is the same range it gave in July, when it raised the outlook from a previous range of a low single-digit decline to broadly stable.
The quarter also brought regulatory news. GSK's hepatitis B medicine Hibsago was approved in the US and Japan, Jemperli was approved in the US for a form of locally advanced rectal cancer, and a Shingrix pre-filled syringe was approved in Japan. GSK also started a Phase 3 trial of an mRNA seasonal flu vaccine.
Why does this matter for Ireland?
GSK says it has operated in Ireland for almost 100 years. Its Dublin headquarters at CityWest runs the commercial business that supplies more than 100 prescription medicines and vaccines in Ireland. Its Cork hub at Cork Airport Business Park houses global support staff in research, pharmaceuticals and vaccines functions, and its laboratory at Carrigtohill, which opened in 2022, provides specialised analytical support. GSK says it is one of the largest providers of childhood vaccines to the HSE and that all immunised babies in Ireland receive at least one GSK vaccine.
The two vaccines that slipped this quarter are also the subject of Irish funding decisions. In July 2024 the Health Information and Quality Authority (HIQA) concluded that adding shingles vaccination to the routine schedule for everyone aged 50 and over "would not be an efficient use of HSE resources" at the price then submitted, although it found the vaccine safe and effective. On 28 April 2026 HIQA published its assessment of RSV immunisation. For adults aged 80 and over it estimated a five-year cost of €70.6 million and found a programme would only be cost-effective if the vaccine price fell to €20, against a list price of €165 excluding VAT. Both assessments are advice to the Minister for Health, who makes the final decision.
Lower demand for these vaccines abroad and price-sensitive assessments at home point the same way: older-adult vaccines are a harder market than GSK expected when Arexvy launched in 2023.
Frequently asked questions
Did GSK's total sales fall in Q3 2026?
No. Group turnover rose 5% at constant exchange rates to £8,887 million. Only the vaccines business declined, by 2%.
Why did Shingrix sales fall?
GSK said the decline was driven by lower sales in its International region, primarily China.
Why did Arexvy sales fall?
GSK cited lower market demand and the effect of US returns provision adjustments that boosted the same quarter in 2025.
Is the shingles vaccine free in Ireland?
When HIQA published its assessment in July 2024, people in Ireland had to pay for shingles vaccination. HIQA advised against a routine programme for those aged 50 and over at the submitted price. The decision rests with the Minister for Health.
Did GSK change its 2026 forecast?
No. GSK reaffirmed its guidance for turnover, core operating profit and core earnings per share, and kept its outlook of broadly stable to low single-digit growth for vaccines.
Outlook
GSK's third quarter shows a company whose growth now comes from specialty medicines, while its vaccine franchise relies on meningitis vaccines to offset weaker shingles, RSV and flu sales. The next checkpoint is GSK's full-year results in early 2027, which will show whether vaccines finish the year inside the guided range. In Ireland, the questions to watch are any ministerial decision on shingles or older-adult RSV vaccination following HIQA's advice.
Sources
- GSK plc, Q3 2026 results (Form 6-K filed with the US SEC), 28 October 2026
- GSK plc, Q2 2026 results (Form 6-K), July 2026
- GSK, GSK in Ireland
- HIQA, HIQA publishes assessment of adding shingles vaccine to the national immunisation programme for adults, 19 July 2024
- HIQA, HIQA publishes assessment of immunisation against RSV, 28 April 2026
Cover image: The GlaxoSmithKline Building in Brentford, London, Jim Linwood, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons. Photo taken March 2022.
