Living ProofData DeskClinical trialsEdition 2026 Q4
Ireland is missing about 73 clinical trials a year, and comes last of 11 countries for trials of medicines
Measured per head against ten comparable European countries, Ireland starts 11.8 trials of medicines a year for every million people. The median is 18.1. The shortfall runs through company and academic trials alike. In 2024 the then health minister set a goal of doubling the number of trials.
Priya Life Science Data Desk · Published 15 November 2026 · Edition data published 28 October 2026, registry pulled 27 October 2026 · Live figures on request
Reviewed, verified and approved by a human editor.
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What this story stands on
- 39 computed numbers, recalculated in your browser or worked out from numbers it checks
- 11 sourced facts from documents we read, linked and dated
- 1 said on the record by a named person
- 7 our reading: analysis, labelled as such, never presented as fact
The story in 30 seconds
- 73, computed, select to see the proof and check it more clinical trials a year would bring Ireland level with the median of ten comparable European countries.
- 11.8, computed, select to see the proof and check it vs 18.1, computed, select to see the proof and check it trials of medicines a year per million people: Ireland against the comparison median. Ireland ranks 11th of 11, computed, select to see the proof and check it.
- 213 days, sourced, select to see the document median wait from approval to the first site being ready to take patients, the slowest in the EU for industry trials.
- 12, computed, select to see the proof and check it of 12 years since 2014 in which Ireland was below the median, every year we counted.
The gap
From 2021 to 2025, trials with at least one site in Ireland started at a rate of 21.3, computed, select to see the proof and check it a year for every million people. Ten comparison countries had a median of 34.7, computed, select to see the proof and check it. That puts Ireland 10th of 11, computed, select to see the proof and check it, ahead only of Portugal. Denmark, which has a similar population, starts 82.6, computed, select to see the proof and check it per million, 3.9 times, computed, select to see the proof and check it Ireland’s rate.
Source: ClinicalTrials.gov; Eurostat. Download the figures
Which trials are missing
The registry lets us split the gap two ways: by what is being tested, and by who sponsors the trial.
Trials of medicines, which carry a phase 1 to 4 label, start in Ireland at 11.8, computed, select to see the proof and check it a year per million people, against a median of 18.1, computed, select to see the proof and check it. No other country here starts fewer. The margin is small: Portugal is just ahead, and 3, computed, select to see the proof and check it more Irish trials of medicines over the five years would have lifted Ireland to 10th. Reaching the median would mean about 34, computed, select to see the proof and check it more trials of medicines a year. Other studies, of devices, surgery, exercise, diet or how care is organised, start at 9.5, computed, select to see the proof and check it, against 16.8, computed, select to see the proof and check it.
By sponsor, industry-sponsored trials start at 12.5, computed, select to see the proof and check it per million a year, against a comparison median of 15.9, computed, select to see the proof and check it: about four-fifths of the usual level. Counting only company-sponsored trials of medicines, Ireland is 11th of 11, computed, select to see the proof and check it. Trials not sponsored by industry, from hospitals, universities and research groups in Ireland or abroad, start at 8.8, computed, select to see the proof and check it, against 19.1, computed, select to see the proof and check it: less than half.
Of the 73 missing trials a year, industry accounts for 18, computed, select to see the proof and check it. The other 55, computed, select to see the proof and check it are not sponsored by industry; that remainder is a difference, not a separate count. A caution on that second number: three in four non-industry studies in Ireland, and three in four in Denmark, are not trials of medicines. Countries differ in how routinely they register those studies, so the non-industry gap is less certain than the gap in medicine trials. Our reading For patients, trials of medicines are the main way to get a treatment before it is generally available. That is where Ireland ranks lowest.
Trials of medicines (phase 1 to 4)
Other studies: devices, surgery, care, diet
Sponsored by drug and device companies
Not sponsored by industry
Source: ClinicalTrials.gov phase label and sponsor class (industry vs all others); Eurostat. Medians do not add up across groups, because the middle country differs.
Not a bad year, a pattern
Ireland has been below the comparison median in every year since 2014. In 2025 it started 21.9, computed, select to see the proof and check it trials per million against a median of 29.3, computed, select to see the proof and check it. Our reading The gap narrowed in 2025 more because the comparison median fell than because Ireland rose. Counts for 2025 may still grow as late registrations arrive.
Source: ClinicalTrials.gov; Eurostat. Download the figures
Why: what officials, industry and patients say
The registry can show the gap. It cannot show the cause. For that we read what the Department of Health, the Health Research Board, the industry and patient groups have published, and we label each point by where it comes from.
In August 2024 the then Minister for Health, Stephen Donnelly, set up a National Clinical Trials Oversight Group, saying: “I want to double the number of clinical trials taking place in Ireland, said on the record, select to see where.” The group reported in November 2025, sourced, select to see the document. It named the obstacles: contract negotiation, costing processes and data-protection compliance, national shortages of key skills and a reliance on short-term contracts, and the lack of a national electronic health record, sourced, select to see the document. It set out 20 recommendations, sourced, select to see the document, including a clinical trials advisory council by early 2026 and a national clinical trials body by the third quarter of 2027. In July 2026 the health minister appointed Prof Donal Brennan, sourced, select to see the document, who chaired the oversight group, to lead the new council. Most of the years this index counts, 2021 to 2025, came before those reforms. We have asked the Department of Health what has been done since.
The industry measures the delay. In IPHA’s figures, the time from EU approval to the first Irish site being ready was 213 days, sourced, select to see the document, the slowest in the EU. Patient groups count the cost. The Irish Cancer Society found that only 2 to 3 per cent, sourced, select to see the document of cancer patients take part in trials, against a national target of 6 per cent.
Money has gone in. By 2023 the Health Research Board had invested more than €150 million, sourced, select to see the document in clinical trials infrastructure since 2002. Our reading The obstacles on that list, contracts, data-protection paperwork, short-term posts, slow every trial, and fall hardest on trials a hospital runs itself, with no company team to absorb them. It is a reading, not a proof: the registry records that a trial started, not why another one did not.
What the leader does differently
Denmark starts more trials per head than any other country here. Since autumn 2025 its medicines agency and ethics committees have reviewed eligible phase I and phase I/II applications within 14 days, sourced, select to see the document, and phase I applications rose by almost 80 per cent in a year, according to the government’s investment agency. Denmark starts 38.2, computed, select to see the proof and check it trials of medicines per million a year against Ireland’s 11.8, and 55.1, computed, select to see the proof and check it trials not sponsored by industry against Ireland’s 8.8. Our reading Fast approval helps the first; a health service that treats research as part of care fills the second.
Two other counts point the same way
A single analysis can be wrong in ways its authors cannot see. So we compared our result with two others, made by different people over different years. They measure different things, so the ratios should not match.
| Who counted | What | Denmark compared with Ireland |
|---|---|---|
| This index | All interventional trials, 2021 to 2025, per head of population | 3.9 times, computed, select to see the proof and check it |
| Irish Cancer Society, Forvis Mazars | Interventional cancer trials, 2018 to 2023, average a year (not per head); also from ClinicalTrials.gov | about 3 times, sourced, select to see the document |
| IPHA | Industry-sponsored trials, 2023 to 2025, total (not per head); industry data | more than 2.5 times, sourced, select to see the document |
Our reading All three put Denmark at between two and a half and four times Ireland. The cancer count uses the same registry as we do, so it checks our arithmetic more than our source. The industry count comes from a different source and agrees.
Does the finding hold? We tried to break it
A finding that only appears one way of counting is not a finding. Ireland is below the comparison median in all 12 years from 2014, and below the comparison group in 6 of 6 other ways of counting, but not against Portugal alone (last row). Your browser re-checks both numbers in every test when you run the check. No plan was written and dated before this analysis: the tests below were set while the story was being built, and two were added after independent review, as marked.
Each year: Ireland’s trials started per million (top) and the median of ten (below). Every year is divided by the 1 January 2025 population, which understates Ireland’s earlier years because its population has grown faster than most. Each Irish figure would have to be more than 33 per cent higher before any year reached the median.
| Other ways of counting | Ireland | Comparison | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Only industry-sponsored trials | 12.5 | 15.9 | Holds |
| Only trials not sponsored by industry | 8.8 | 19.1 | Holds |
| Leaving out Denmark, the leader | 21.3 | 34.5 | Holds |
| Only countries within a million people of Ireland’s size (Denmark, Finland, Norway) | 21.3 | 36.2 | Holds |
| Only trials of medicines (phase 1 to 4)Added on 4 November 2026, after review | 11.8 | 18.1 | Holds |
| Only other studies (no drug phase)Added on 4 November 2026, after review | 9.5 | 16.8 | Holds |
| Against Portugal alone | 21.3 | 19.3 | Does not hold |
Our reading Where it does not hold, we say so: Ireland starts more trials per head than Portugal. The finding is about Ireland against comparable countries as a group, not against every one of them.
What would change our mind
- If the January 2027 edition shows Ireland’s 2026 rate at or above the comparison median, we will say the gap has closed for that year, in the headline. You can watch the live count below.
- If trials registered only in the EU’s own system (CTIS), which this index does not count, turned out to be much more common for Ireland than for the other countries, the gap could be smaller than it looks. We have asked the European Medicines Agency for permission to use that data.
- If a sponsor or hospital shows us Irish trials missing from the registry, we will add them, rerun everything and log the change below.
Since we published Live
Everything in this section is provisional and is not part of the check. When you press the button, your browser fetches it directly from the public registry, ClinicalTrials.gov (run by the US National Library of Medicine), and from Airmid Éireann, our open data engine, which re-collects every Irish and European trial record every week. Nothing is fetched until you ask.
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Source: ClinicalTrials.gov API, fetched by your browser just now; Eurostat population.
Where Ireland does well
Trials with Irish sites tend to be seen through. Of those that closed from 2016 to 2025, 86.9%, computed, select to see the proof and check it completed rather than stopping early, 4th of 11, computed, select to see the proof and check it. Results were posted for 80.1%, computed, select to see the proof and check it of completed phase 2 to 4 trials, 3rd of 11, computed, select to see the proof and check it.
As in most of the comparison countries, few post results quickly: 9.1%, computed, select to see the proof and check it posted results within a year of finishing, the same as the comparison median of 9.1%, computed, select to see the proof and check it.
Where it lags
82.6%, computed, select to see the proof and check it of new trials were registered before the first patient joined, 9th of 11, computed, select to see the proof and check it. And 10.7%, computed, select to see the proof and check it of records since 2014 now carry the registry’s “unknown status” label because the sponsor has not confirmed them in time, 8th of 11, computed, select to see the proof and check it (lower is better). Our reading Once a trial is open in Ireland it is usually finished and reported well. The problem is getting trials opened, which is what the oversight group’s recommendations target.
All eight measures
| Measure | Ireland | Median of ten | Best | Ireland's rank | Check |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trials started per million peopleper million a year | 21.3 | 34.7 | Denmark 82.6 | 10th of 11 | Not run |
| Industry-sponsored trials per million peopleper million a year | 12.5 | 15.9 | Belgium 29.8 | 9th of 11 | Not run |
| Early-phase share of new trials% of starts | 6.0% | 6.7% | Netherlands 14.0% | 7th of 11joint with Finland | Not run |
| Registered before the first patient% of starts | 82.6% | 84.8% | Switzerland 87.9% | 9th of 11 | Not run |
| Completed rather than stopped early% of closed trials | 86.9% | 83.6% | Denmark 88.6% | 4th of 11 | Not run |
| Results posted at all% of completed phase 2 to 4 | 80.1% | 74.8% | Portugal 85.5% | 3rd of 11 | Not run |
| Results posted within 12 months% of completed phase 2 to 4 | 9.1% | 9.1% | Portugal 11.6% | 6th of 11 | Not run |
| Records gone stale% of trials since 2014 · lower is better | 10.7% | 9.6% | Czechia 5.5% | 8th of 11 | Not run |
What the authorities said
On 5 November 2026 we sent these findings, with our questions, to the Department of Health, the Health Research Board and the HRB National Clinical Trials Office, and asked for a reply by Wednesday 11 November 2026, 17:00. Replies are printed in full.
Department of Health
We asked its press office on 5 November 2026 and had no reply by publication. We will add any reply here, with its date.
Health Research Board
We asked its general office on 5 November 2026 and had no reply by publication. We will add any reply here, with its date.
HRB National Clinical Trials Office
We asked its office on 5 November 2026 and had no reply by publication. We will add any reply here, with its date.
How to check this story
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The check button downloads the 47,265 country records behind this edition (one row per trial per country, 32,816 distinct trials) and reruns our calculation in your browser. It compares its own result with the value the story was written from for every published number, re-checks every stress test, and confirms that the file has the SHA-256 fingerprint published below, the same fingerprint as the archived copy.
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node fetch.mjs, thennode compute.mjs, and compare with the edition file. The browser engine and the page script carry the EUPL-1.2 open licence. The QC report includes a test where we planted errors on purpose to make sure our checks catch them.Code on GitHub Archived edition and trial-level file (DOI 10.5281/zenodo.24229455) Quality-control report Trial-level file Airmid Éireann open data
What this cannot tell you
- It counts trials registered on ClinicalTrials.gov. Trials registered only in the EU’s own trial system are not included.
- A trial with sites in several countries counts once in each of them, so the 44,770 country records cover 30,943 distinct trials.
- “Not sponsored by industry” uses the registry’s sponsor class. It includes universities and research groups outside Ireland, and a company can fund a trial that a hospital sponsors; the registry does not show either.
- “Trials of medicines” are trials with a phase 1 to 4 label, which the sponsor assigns. Most other studies, of devices, surgery or care, carry no phase. Registering those studies on ClinicalTrials.gov is less routine in some countries than others.
- Results measures look only at ClinicalTrials.gov. Many European trials post results to the EU’s own systems (EudraCT or CTIS) instead.
- Each year in the trend is divided by the 2025 population (see the stress test).
- The gaps of 73 and 18 trials a year are worked out from rates rounded to one decimal place, as in the edition. From unrounded rates the gap is 72.7, of which industry is about 19 and the remainder about 54. The remainder is a difference, not a separate count.
- Registry entries are written by sponsors. Where a sponsor has not updated a record, we report what the registry says, not what happened.
- The measures describe how much research happens and how well it is reported. They do not judge the quality of any single trial, hospital or sponsor.
Edition record
- Edition
- 2026-q4 (edition 1). Next edition January 2027.
- Story published
- 15 November 2026
- Edition data published
- 28 October 2026
- Registry data pulled
- 27 October 2026
- As-of date used by the check
- 28 October 2026
- Sources read
- 4 November 2026; the oversight group's report re-read in full on 10 November 2026. Every sourced fact links to the document and states its date.
- Archived copy
- Trial-level file and manifest: doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.24229455. Edition indicators and code: doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.23725680.
- Data fingerprint
SHA-256 ea25dd908cfa79d84ca9fb0afc4f8675c20842cc37d53b837789224704783137- Sources and licence
- Trial records: ClinicalTrials.gov API v2 (https://clinicaltrials.gov/api/v2/studies), US National Library of Medicine, pulled 27 October 2026. Population: Eurostat table tps00001, 1 January 2025. Our edition data is published under CC BY 4.0; see the data licence and attribution.
- Fixed before the edition was published
- Quality control on 27 October 2026 found four errors, all fixed before the edition was published on 28 October 2026; the before-and-after values are in the quality-control report: older records without a date type were undercounted; keyword-labelled reasons for stopping were replaced by hand-checked labels; distinct trials and country records were separated; tied ranks are now shown as joint.
- How AI was used
- AI tools (Claude, by Anthropic) helped find and summarise documents, write and test the code, and draft text that an editor rewrote. An AI review was one extra check, not the review of record. The illustration at the top was generated with Google Gemini and is labelled as such. No number was produced by an AI model: every number comes from code run on public data, and your browser repeats it. Every source was read and every quotation is from a linked publication. See the AI layer.
- Changed after independent review
- 4 November 2026, before publication: headline and dek reframed around trials of medicines; the non-industry split given its limits; medicine and non-medicine tests added to the stress test; the comparison with other counts relabelled by basis; population basis of the yearly trend disclosed. 10 November 2026, before publication: oversight-group facts checked against the full report; numbers that had been typed into the text replaced by code; the margin behind Portugal disclosed.
- Plan
- Living Proof No. 1 was built before the Living Proof Standard was written. No plan was written and dated before the analysis: the index was published on 28 October 2026, and its stress tests and “what would change our mind” were written by 4 November 2026, two of them after review. From No. 2 onwards the plan is dated and published before the analysis.
- Conformance
- Living Proof Standard version 1.0. This story does not yet meet one of its requirements: there was no plan dated before the analysis (above). Signed off by the approving editor.
- Corrections since
- None. Any change will be listed here with the old and new value, and on our corrections page.
About this format
Living Proof: five promises
- Every claim says what it stands on. Computed, sourced, said, or our reading. Analysis is never dressed as fact.
- Every computed number can be re-run by the reader. The data and the code are public, and your own device does the arithmetic.
- The conclusion is attacked in public. We publish the ways we tried to break it, where it fails, and what would change our mind.
- The story stays alive. It shows its age and what has changed since, fed by our open data engine, Airmid Éireann.
- Every change is visible. Corrections show the old and new value, with the date and the reason.
This is Living Proof No. 1. It follows the Living Proof Standard, with the exceptions listed in its edition record. What the format is, how the engine works, and where AI is and is not used.