Predictive Performance of NEWS-2 and NEWS-Calcium Scores for In-Hospital Mortality in Older Patients With Acute Pancreatitis

Condition(s) studied

Investigational drug(s) / intervention(s)

Retrospective Calculation of NEWS-2 Score: he National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS-2) will be calculated retrospectively using physiological parameters recorded at emergency department admission, including respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, systolic blood pressure, pulse rate, level of consciousness, body temperature, and supplemental oxygen use. No intervention will be administered to patients as part of this study.

Study summary

Acute pancreatitis is an important gastrointestinal emergency that may lead to mortality, particularly in older patients. This retrospective, single-center observational prognostic validation study aims to compare the predictive performance of the National Early Warning Score 2 (NEWS-2) and NEWS-Calcium scores for in-hospital mortality in patients aged 65 years and older diagnosed with acute pancreatitis in the emergency department.

Electronic medical records of eligible patients will be reviewed retrospectively. Demographic characteristics, vital signs, serum calcium levels, clinical outcomes, intensive care unit admission, organ failure, length of hospital stay, and in-hospital mortality will be recorded. NEWS-2 will be calculated using vital parameters at admission, while the NEWS-Calcium score will be obtained by adding a calcium-based score to NEWS-2.

The primary outcome will be in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes will include intensive care unit admission, severe acute pancreatitis, persistent organ failure, and length of hospital stay. The predictive performances of the scores will be compared using ROC curve analysis, AUC values, and the DeLong test. This study aims to identify the most appropriate early prognostic score for older patients with acute pancreatitis and to support clinical decision-making in emergency settings.

Eligibility

Primary outcome measure(s)

• In-Hospital Mortality — From emergency department admission to hospital discharge or in-hospital death, up to 30 days.
  n-hospital mortality will be defined as death occurring during the index hospitalization among patients aged 65 years and older diagnosed with acute pancreatitis in the emergency department. Mortality status will be obtained retrospectively from electronic medical records.

Trial sites (1)

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